My predictions for 2016

Here’s what’s going to happen in 2016.

The EU Referendum will result in a popular vote to remain, settling the Europe question once and for all; and enabling David Cameron to quieten the radical Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party. The vote will end a period of economic uncertainty and lead to an upswing in the economy and a stronger pound.

The US will have its first female President, blazing the trail for a wave of female leaders in politics and business across the globe. This will strengthen the backlash against irresponsible business, including the involvement of the corporate world in politics.

Manchester United will win the Premier League.

But what if these predictions turn out to be wrong?

It seems unlikely I know, but one thing history tells us is that it’s much easier to look back with certainty than forward.

As a ground-breaking documentary called Hypernormalisation will remind us, we live in uncertain times, when unpredictable things keep happening that we can’t quite understand.

So perhaps a better way to look to and prepare for the future might be to look at trends, not events.

The growth and mainstreaming of anti-establishment thinking.

The automation of skilled jobs leading to growing industrial unrest.

The increasing politicisation of debate, driven by a fragmented online culture and divisive media.

The pressure on businesses, charities and people to take sides.

When you look at the trends, the events make so much more sense.

So, what will 2017 hold?

No-one can say.

But join us at GOOD to look at some of the trends that will shape it.

I hope to be there. But I can’t be certain.